Tuesday, May 22, 2018

I Expect A NZD/USD Rally

On the W1 and the Daily time frame the pair reached a local support at 0.6850 and after breaking out above the trend channel that it formed from 1st May 2018 to 15th May 2018 (on the H4 time frame, marked in red) it began an movement to the upside.

I expect the pair will test the support at 0.6850 once more after which it may begin a move north to 0.7050 – 0.7060 (which is 38.2% Fibo of the last depreciation from 0.73947 to 0.68506).

To the upside after the resistance at 0.7950 – 0.7060 follows the strong resistance at 61.8% Fibo in the zone around 0.7150 – 0.7170.

To the downside the next strong support is around 0.6800 – 0.6780.

Monday, May 21, 2018

I Expect An EUR/USD Correction, After Which The Pair Will Continue Its Downward Trend

The market decided that there will be a breakout below the triangle it developed at the high of the EUR/USD movement and the limit of that triangle was reached and even exceeded as the pair depreciated with over 500 pips.

The current trend is bearish without a doubt and is developing as a correction of the impulse rally from 1.03400 to 1.25556. The strong support would be at 50% Fibo of the impulse, in the zone around 1.1450 - 1.1400.

Despite that there is quite a while until the pair reaches that level and we are currently focused on the D1 support level reached by the pair at 1.1700. The signal for a move north formed when the H4 bar closed at 1.17163. The closing of the D1 bar after a low at 1.17163 (at 38.2% Fibo)  would confirm the expected corrective move to the upside.

I expect the correction to reach 1.1950 – 1.1970 after which the depreciation to the strong support at 1.1450 – 1.1400 will be renewed.

Saturday, May 19, 2018

GBP/USD Is Developing A Bearish Trend With Initial Target 1.3050 – 1.3000

After the breakout below the trend channel GBP/USD continued depreciating, I think the strong support level will be around 1.3350 – 1.3330.

I expect that the pair will rebound from that level back to the trend line it broke out below (in red).
For the moment, however, the main trend remains bearish and in the medium term we could expect that after the test of the breakout the pair will renew its depreciation toward 1.3100 – 1.3050. If the support holds out we may see a renewal of the upward movement.

In the alternative scenario there will be a breakout below that support and in the long term the pair will test the lowest levels it reached in the beginning of 2017.

USD/JPY Is Headed For The Resistance Trend Line Of The Channel

The expected rally of the USD/JPY pair became a reality, and said rally turned out considerably stronger than what was expected initially.

If we examine the W1 time frame we cannot fail to notice that what the pair is forming strongly resembles a flag and the pair has reached its trend lines four times – twice the resistance and twice the support trend line. The figure, however, is rather deep so I’d rather not actually call it a flag.

It appears that the pair is headed for the resistance trend line for a third time. It is possible to form a correction to 108.00 before it tests the resistance.

In the alternative scenario the pair will continue directly to the resistance trend line.

The more interesting question is, I think, whether the pair will break out above the resistance trend line. If that happens, we could expect a serious continuation of the upward movement. The height of the channel at its base is 1000 pips, but whether the pair could reach that limit is another matter, which is up for the market to decide.

Thursday, May 17, 2018

AUD/USD Is Developing A Bearish Correction

The expected bearish correction began, but as most corrections on the W1 and D1 time frames, it is very slow to develop and it will take time to end.

The pair reached the local low at 0.74121 crowned by a pin bar on the D1 and H4 time frames, and began a movement that so far looks like a wide consolidation.

A trend channel is developing on the D1 time frame, and the next resistance level is in the zone around 0.7580 -0.7600, but in my opinion the expectation that the correction will reach 0.7640 – 0.7650 remains valid.

After reaching that resistance level we could expect for the depreciation to continue while the strong support would be around 0.7230 – 0.7220.

Tuesday, May 15, 2018

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Monday, May 14, 2018

I Expect A Bullish GBP/USD Correction

GBP/USD broke out below the trend line of the upward channel that formed from 1.19914 - 1.43762 and the main trend is bearish for the moment.

Despite that the pair reached a strong support at 1.3420 on the W1 time frame and the bar that formed above that support is a signal for a possible bullish correction.

On the D1 time frame there are bars which confirm the expectation for a corrective rally. The priority scenario is here is for a rally for the pair to test the breakout – i.e. a rally to 1.3720 – 1.3750, after which we could expect a renewal of the downward movement to 1.3200 – 1.3150.

The alternative scenario is for a direct depreciation toward 1.3200 – 1.3150 but at the moment that appears less probable.